Diesel just jumped over 50% in 10 trading days. Here’s what it means for Australian businesses.
Since the Middle East conflict began on February 28, the Brent crude oil price, the global benchmark priced in USD, has surged from $71.66/bbl to a peak of $119/bbl before settling at $110.56/bbl as of March 10. That's a greater than 50% increase in just 10 trading days.
Diesel markets have reacted even more sharply than petrol. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Strait of Hormuz carried an average of 20 million barrels of oil per day in 2024. This is roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption, with 84% of that flow destined for Asian markets, including the refineries that supply Australia's diesel.
Shipping data shows tanker traffic through the Strait has fallen from 20-30 oil tankers per day prior to the conflict to almost zero today. While alternative export routes exist, they carry significantly less volumes than normally pass through the Strait, meaning there is no practical alternative capable of replacing that volume.
The Impact on Australian Fuel Prices - Fossil Diesel Tied to Crude
Most of Australia's diesel is imported from refineries in South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Taiwan, Brunei, India and Japan- all of which depend on Middle Eastern crude for their feedstock. While Australia’s diesel is refined in Asia, the source crude oil originates in the Gulf States, making Australian fuel prices directly exposed to events in the Middle East.
Australian diesel pricing is therefore directly tethered to global crude oil volatility. Supply constraints, production costs, refining margins, and freight rates all move in sync. The result is what we're seeing now.
Our research shows that Terminal Gate Prices have moved +70-80c/L in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane in less than two weeks. Retail prices are still catching up. The AIP national retail average was 180.3c/L in the week ending February 22 with new data showing 218.1c/L as of March 10, with further rises likely as the typical two-week lag filters through.
For Australian operators in transport, logistics, freight, mining, construction and any other diesel reliant business, this is no longer a future risk, it’s happening now.
Click on the graph tabs below to compare crude ($USD/Barrel) to Australian terminal gate and retail prices for fossil diesel as at March 10, 2026.
What the Data Shows
Australian wholesale & retail prices tracking the shock with a ~2 week lag.
Feb 26 ($71.66) → Mar 10 ($110.56)
Feb 25 (~164.4c) → Mar 10 (~222.0c)
Feb 22 baseline (180.3c) → Mar 10 (218.1c)
Fossil Diesel Supply Constraints
Beyond price, supply itself is beginning to come under pressure. The conflict has directly impacted refineries in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain, reducing output at source, while Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have been forced to cut production and exports. Combined with the near-total halt of Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic, this represents a simultaneous shock to both the production and distribution of approximately 20% of global oil supply.
Closer to home, Energy Minister Chris Bowen confirmed in Parliament on March 2 that Australia currently holds 34 days of diesel reserves - a figure that has drawn scrutiny, with questions raised about whether some of that stock is aboard vessels rather than held onshore. More recent data suggests the true onshore figure may be as low as 25 days of diesel available. Australia has not met the IEA's 90-day reserve requirement since 2012.
With passage through the Strait all but halted and Australian onshore reserves sitting well below international benchmarks, the risk to supply is real and growing.
Word of this is already filtering through the market with some suppliers and terminals beginning to prioritise contracted buyers, which may affect businesses that rely on spot purchases or ad hoc deliveries. Businesses across all sectors that rely on diesel for operations, logistics, or productivity should be aware that fuel availability - not just cost - may become a factor in the weeks ahead.
Diesel is the fuel of commerce. An interrupted supply doesn't just affect the bottom line, it can affect your ability to operate.
HVO is Not Tied to Crude Oil Volatility – Price or Supply
HVO renewable diesel is decoupled from the volatility of crude oil, in both price and supply. While HVO is chemically near-identical to fossil diesel, the fundamental difference lies in the feedstock. HVO is made from waste cooking oils, animal fats, and vegetable oils, not crude oil.
While the Strait of Hormuz is key to the global crude oil supply chain, it is largely irrelevant to the HVO supply chain. HVO feedstock and refining generally occurs in Europe, the US and Asia, with no dependence on Gulf State source material, Gulf refining capacity, or tanker passage through the Strait.
So when geopolitical events drive crude from US$70 to US$119 in a matter of days, HVO doesn't automatically follow - because its inputs and logistics are entirely independent of oil markets.
Security and Sustainability in One Move
At RD2Go, our HVO is sourced within the Asia-Pacific region. Feedstock is collected regionally, refining occurs locally and our shipping and logistics is separate from those affected by current Gulf conflict. This means our HVO prices and availability remain insulated from the crude oil volatility currently affecting fossil diesel markets.
We continue to monitor the global situation closely, however as of March 10, 2026 our HVO supply and shipping lines remain open and unaffected. HVO is available today.
In moments like this, where both price and physical access to diesel are under some pressure, HVO is worth understanding - not just as a sustainable or green choice, but as a practical hedge for businesses thinking carefully about fuel security of supply and continuity of operations.
If you'd like to understand how HVO can support your business, whether its related to price stability, supply security or building it into a longer future proofing procurement strategy, we're happy to walk you through the options.
Disclaimer: This article was published on March 10, 2026. Fuel price data sourced from EIA daily spot prices, ICE futures, AIP city averages (Sydney, Melbourne & Brisbane), Petrolmate, and Ampol, Viva Energy & IOR supplier averages. Reserve figures sourced from Australian Parliamentary Hansard (March 2, 2026). IBISWorld data used for supply dependency figures. Price lag methodology per ACCC. Figures are subject to change as market conditions evolve. This article is intended for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, procurement, or investment advice.